Betting On Games
The sports betting menu is crowded with choices. Some of the wagering opportunities you’ll come across are a bit on the advanced side, but there are also ones which are straightforward and easy to wrap your head around.
Moneyline bets fall into the latter category. For these wagers, you’re simply choosing the winner of the game. That’s it. There’s no point spread to worry about or anything like that. If the side you pick wins the game, you’re golden.
While the concept itself is simple, there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to the moneyline. There are times when the bets make sense, situations where you should pass, and other scenarios in which you may want to do a little shopping.
The best NFL picks and predictions for Feb 04, 2021. Get our best pro football bets for today as well as news, scores, odds, consensus, and more! Online sports betting and daily fantasy sports are distinct products and regulated as such. Betting on the DraftKings Sportsbook is currently only available in certain states. To find out which states, check out our guide to where sports betting is legal. Money Line: The money line is a bet on the odds of a team winning the game as opposed to a point spread that is based on the scoring outcome. Money Line is a simple wager on which team will win. Parlay: A parlay is a single bet that links two or more wagers. To win the bet, the player must win all the wagers in the parlay. Betting on NFL Point Spreads: Spotting, Taking, and the Push Point-spread sports gambling works by “spotting” points to the underdog and “taking” points away from the favorite prior to kickoff.
We’re going to take a detailed look at everything you need to know right here. For starters, here are the best spots to place your bets online legally and safely.
How Does the Moneyline Work?
After a quick glance at the moneyline odds, you will immediately know which side is the favorite or the underdog in a game. Oddsmakers will attach odds to both sides of the equation.
The favorite will be designated with negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds attached. Here’s what they’ll look like at an online sportsbook using a random NFL game as an example.
- Los Angeles Rams +110
- San Francisco 49ers -130
In this fictitious game, the 49ers are favored, and bets on that side will pay out at odds of -130 if correct. For the underdog Rams, successful bets on that side pay out at odds of +110.
So how do the odds impact what the actual return will be. Here’s the math on both sides for a $100 wager.
- $100 bet at odds of +110 = potential total return of $210 (the original $100 bet plus a profit of $110).
- $100 bet at odds of -130 = potential total return of $176.90 (the original $100 stake plus a profit of $76.90).
As you can see, a successful bet at positive odds offers the chance for greater returns than successful bets at negative odds.
However, that doesn’t mean you should randomly place your wagers on underdogs and hope for the best. Normal handicapping rules apply with moneyline betting, and the goal is to place your bets on the side you feel gives you the greatest chance of being right.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline wager is a straight bet on the winner of a game. There are no point spreads attached or any other factors to consider. The sole concern is which side will win the contest.
After taking a look at the moneyline odds for a game you’re interested in betting on, you’ll know which side is expected to win. The favorite will have negative odds attached, while the underdog has positive odds.
Once you know that, the task at hand is to handicap the game and figure out which side you like. We’ll cover some tips on handicapping in a bit. For now, just know that it’s not as complex as it may sound.
Returns are going to vary based on which side you bet on. In a nutshell, you’ll see larger returns for correct bets on underdogs, but you shouldn’t let that be the determining factor on your choices.
There will be times when you find that the underdog makes the most sense, but there will also be plenty of times when you come up with the favorite as the answer to the question.
It can be helpful to be selective with which wagers you place on the moneyline. We’ll be covering that in more detail as we move along.
Betting on Favorites vs. Underdogs
When looking at moneyline odds, the favorite and the underdog will be readily apparent.
- Chicago Bulls +120
- Houston Rockets -140
In this fictitious NBA matchup, the Rockets are a decent-sized favorite. You’ll see less of a return for betting on that side as a result, while successful wagers on the underdog Bulls would see a bigger return.
Once again, it’s important not to let the potential return be your guide. Making the correct call is the bottom line, so your choices should revolve around which side you think has the greater chance to win.
To that end, it can be helpful to break down the game first prior to worrying about what the potential return will be. After you do this enough times, you’ll be able to figure out the range of returns quickly anyway, and that can help you be more selective with your choices.
For example, you may find that huge favorites are relatively safe wagers, but that the returns aren’t what you have in mind on a long-term basis. As such, you make a concerted effort to look for other opportunities first, such as favorites at odds of -180 or less.
After breaking down enough games on the other side, you’ll begin to understand that huge underdogs are that way for a reason. Sure, they’ll come in here and there, but solely focusing on big underdogs and hoping for a big score is not a recipe for a healthy bankroll.
Balance is a big key with moneyline betting, and the ultimate return on investment is the bottom line to focus on.
Examples of Moneyline Betting
Moneyline odds are offered for all of the major North American sports. The odds are presented in the same way for each, so you’ll be able to interpret them quickly.
For example, here’s a moneyline for an MLB game with a huge favorite.
- San Francisco Giants +180
- Los Angeles Dodgers -220
At first glance, you can quickly tell that the Dodgers have a big advantage for this contest, such as a stronger overall team or a substantial edge in pitching.
Now, let’s take a look at an NHL contest which has much tighter odds.
- Boston Bruins +100
- Montreal Canadiens -120
After looking at this game, we can reasonably assume that these two squads are relatively even. The Canadiens are favored, but the gap in odds is far from substantial.
For basketball and football, point spread bets receive a ton of attention, but there’s also moneyline betting for these two sports. A common misconception is that there’s not enough value to be found on the moneyline in comparison to the spread.
If you solely focus on big favorites, that’s true. However, there are plenty of games in which the moneyline odds are tight. When you look at the point spread for these contests, you can quickly see which ones may have favorable moneyline odds.
As an example, a point spread of 2.5 points or less is a good indicator of a tight game. That being the case, the moneyline odds will have decent value on both sides that’s worth exploring.
Moneyline Betting on Close Games
Speaking of close games, you’ll come across many of these on the odds board regardless of which sport you’re focused on. When evenly-matched teams square off, it can be close to a toss-up in terms of which side will win.
Oddsmakers recognize this, and they will price the games accordingly. For example, in a really tight NFL game, you could see moneyline odds like this.
- Minnesota Vikings -105
- New Orleans Saints -115
When the odds are in such a close range, the difference in return is pretty small. However, that doesn’t mean you should flip a coin and hope for the best.
You’ll still be handicapping the game in search of a winner. It doesn’t matter how even teams may seem at first glance or according to the odds. There are almost always points of difference to be found, and you can always pass on those that are legitimately too close to call.
Moneyline Bet Odds and Line Moves
When odds are released for a slate of games, these are known as the opening lines. After they’re out, the betting public has a chance to weigh in.
Depending on how the action comes in, this can lead to a shift in lines. For example, if lots of money comes in on the favorite, odds on that side will rise in a bid to even out the action.
For bookmakers, the goal is to not be too lopsided one way or the other. If they get a ton of bets on one side and few on the other, that opens up liability on their end. To limit situations such as this, they will adjust the odds where needed in a bid to attract action on the other side.
Lines can also move based on new information that emerges after the initial release. A lineup change, trade, or previously undisclosed injury are among the things which can have an impact.
A good rule of thumb is to examine any changes from the opening line to the time you are ready to place your bets. This can point you to what the overall market sentiment is on the game, and also potentially alert you that there’s some news out there that you may have missed.
Moneyline shopping – What is it, how do you do it?
Understand Betting On Nfl Games
All odds are not created equal. While major sportsbook operators are typically in range, you can find some ticks of difference, especially on the moneyline.
In general, the differences won’t be eye-popping. Bookmakers that are far off the beaten path will stick out like a sore thumb. As a result, bettors will quickly jump on that line and bring it back more to the level of the general consensus.
To find these points of difference, you’ll need to engage in what’s known as line shopping. This refers to checking the odds and lines at different sportsbooks in a quest to find the best price.
If you were going to buy something online and found differing prices in a few different spots, you would naturally gravitate towards the better deal. It’s the same thing with sports betting odds.
For example, if one book is offering odds of -140 on a favorite, but another book is at -130, the better deal is at the latter. You’ll get a better return there for placing your wager on that particular game.
How to Handicap Moneyline Bets
Handicapping games can sound formidable when you’re unfamiliar with the concept. However, it can actually be a simple process if you allow it to be.
It can be quite easy to get lost in research, and that can make it just as simple to get overwhelmed with information. Especially when starting out, keep it simple and focus on the things that really matter.
Here’s a simple five-point plan that you can use as a starting point.
- The odds and lines for the game. What is this telling you?
- Overall strength of the two teams. Is there a marked difference between the squads?
- Home/road splits. How do the two teams perform in the role they have for this game?
- Key Stats. Points for and against, and other sport-specific stats that really make a difference in the outcome.
- Recent Play. Is one team playing much better than the other recently?
The process gets quicker the more times you go through it. Once you have a handle on it, you can begin to tweak and personalize it to your specifications, such as by adding more stats into the equation that you feel really impact the outcome.
The Bottom Line on Moneyline Betting
Moneyline bets are straight forward wagers in which you are simply deciding which side you think will win. For each game on the docket, oddsmakers will designate a favorite and underdog.
Which side is which will be reflected in the odds. Favorites will have negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds. The odds tell us the likelihood of something happening, as well as what the potential return will be for our wagers.
Moneyline odds are found for all of the major sports. The odds can shift based on market action, as well as news which may develop after the initial release.
There are a number of different systems for handicapping moneyline odds. We’ve included a simple one here in this article which you can use as a starting point. As you advance with sports betting, you’ll be able to implement your own system and tweak as needed.
Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.
The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren’t created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.
The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.
The worse of the teams playing in the game is called the underdog. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. The underdog in a game is listed as being plus (+) the point spread.
Let’s use the upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an example.
Using this example, the Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites over the Buccaneers (currently Chiefs ). The Chiefs need to win by 4 or more points to cover the spread.
Likewise, the Buccaneers opened as 3-point underdogs. That means the Buccaneers would need to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 4 points or more. If the line is Chiefs -3 and they win by exactly 3 points, the betting result is a “push” and bettors for both sides would get their wagers refunded.
BETMGM SPECIAL - New Customers receive a Risk Free First Bet up to $600 + $50 Parlay Insurance for the Big Game! (Just opt-in and place a One Game Parlay wager with 4 legs or more on The Big Game and if you miss one leg, you’ll receive up to $50 back in Free bets. (Maximum 20 legs) - To Claim Click This Link
ALSO READ: 5 Fun Super Bowl prop bets to consider
Point spread betting odds
Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds, but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators’ house edge. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).
The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or “vig” for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the “juice” by some sports bettors.
Point spread FAQs
What does ‘pick em’ or ‘pick’ mean in NFL betting?
A “pick em” (sometimes seen as “pick”) is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you’re essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.
What does -7 and +7 mean in NFL betting?
A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a “push” and the bet is refunded.
A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.
What does -3 and +3 mean in NFL betting?
A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.
A spread of +3 means the team listed as the underdog must win the game or lose by fewer than three points to cash the bet. A three-point loss would be graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet would be refunded.
Why are point spreads in the NFL so much lower than in college?
In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in point differential per game at +13.7 points; the Miami Dolphins ranked last in the NFL in point differential per game at -11.7. Even Kansas City– known for their explosive offense– had an average point differential in 2019 of just 9.7 points. The net point differential in the NFL is -14.1, or -0.9 points per game. Basically, the talent differential in the NFL is so minute that even mismatched teams often draw games within a score of each other.
NFL spreads are most commonly between one point and four, with six being a heavy favorite and extremes coming out around 15-20 point favors. (For those wondering, the 1941 Chicago Bears hold the NFL record of point differential at +15.7 points per game. Conversely, Ohio State had a +33.1 average point differential in 2019.)
Point spread and odds movement
Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin. If all things are equal over time this will maximize how much money the sportsbook operator can make.
In an effort to have equal money on both sides of a wager, the sportsbook operator will move the point spread to attract money on the side that customers aren’t betting on. The odds for a point spread might change before the actual point spread. There are certain point spread numbers, like 3 and 7 in football, the sportsbook operators would like to avoid moving away from since the final score margin falls on these two numbers most often.
For example, if a lot more money is wagered on the New England Patriots -3, the vig may shift from -112 to -115 and -120 before the line moves to -3.5.
Betting On Games Fanduel
Run and puck lines
Football and basketball games are mostly bet using a point spread. The less popular major sports, baseball and hockey, are mostly bet using a moneyline. In an effort to make baseball and hockey more appealing to point spread bettors, the sportsbook operators offer run and puck lines, respectively.
Betting On Games Explained
These alternative lines give point spread bettors a chance to wager on other sports using a more familiar method of betting. Since points (runs and goals) aren’t as easy to come by in baseball and hockey, the odds with the lines may have a wider spread than a football or basketball game.